556
FXUS65 KGGW 292028
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
228 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) SEASONABLY WARM TO HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
2) A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK EXTENDING INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
HOLIDAY PERIOD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
BUILDING WARMTH. THE EXTENT OF THE WARMTH AS CURRENTLY FORECAST
AND LOOKING AT MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FALLS SHORT OF ANY HEAT
HEADLINES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE THE
HOTTEST SO FAR FOR THE SEASON AFTER RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS
MOST OF JUNE. THE 50TH-75TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS OF 100-105 THESE DAYS.
ENSEMBLES SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. IN SHORT, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST POPULATION WITH MINIMAL DEVIATION
NEEDED TO CAPTURE EXPECTED TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON MAINLY
WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE
CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MIDWEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS DESCRIBED AS GROWING ON INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN EACH DAY STARTING MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH LITTLE TO NO DAYTIME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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