349
FXUS65 KGGW 300923
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
323 AM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK EXTENDING INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY
HOLIDAY PERIOD WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS BRINGING HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY PUSHING TOWARD HEAT
ADVISORY LEVELS WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK. TEMPERATURES
COULD PUSH HIGHER WITH THE 50TH-75TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM
INDICATING READINGS CLOSE OR ABOVE 100.
ENSEMBLES SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. IN SHORT, EXPECT DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BEGIN TRENDING
COOLER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST POPULATION WITH MINIMAL DEVIATION
NEEDED TO CAPTURE EXPECTED TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON MAINLY
WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE
CURRENTLY LOW FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT MIDWEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS DESCRIBED AS GROWING ON INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN EACH DAY STARTING MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH LITTLE TO NO DAYTIME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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