358
FXUS65 KGGW 012039
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
239 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE TURNING
COOLER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, BRINGING HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEDNESDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST MONTANA, WITH POTENTIAL EXPANSION IF THE
50TH-75TH PERCENTILE OF THE NBM VERIFIES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
READINGS AT OR ABOVE 100. THURSDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER, BUT THIS WILL LIMIT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW UPPER RIDGING SLIDING EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE MIDWEEK. THIS WILL SET UP A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HEADING INTO THE
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS STARTING WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED BETWEEN 5-11PM FOR
WIND DOWNBURSTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING MUCH COOLER
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH 70S FOR HIGHS BY SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE NBM WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST POPULATION WITH MINIMAL
DEVIATION NEEDED TO CAPTURE EXPECTED TRENDS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON
MAINLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
WHILE STILL MEDIUM FOR THE OCCURRENCE OF WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT. CONFIDENCE IS DESCRIBED AS GROWING ON INCREASING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN EACH DAY STARTING WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR
DISCUSSION: HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL MEAN MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WITH LITTLE TO NO DAYTIME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH AROUND 21Z WEDNESDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DAWSON-GARFIELD-
MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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