937
FXUS65 KGGW 020901
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
301 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR MUCH OF NE MONTANA.
2) SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL COME
WITH A GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL THREAT.
3) ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS EXPECTED TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100
FOR MUCH OF NE MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY AS SUCH
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. IN THE EASTERN ZONES ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER,
IT IS CLOSE TO CRITERIA AND HEAT IMPACTS NOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXPANDING THE ADVISORY, HOWEVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE MORE
CLUSTERED INTO THE MID 90S COMPARED TO UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S TO
THE WEST. THAT SAID, TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NE MONTANA. GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE CONCERNS WITH THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
SPANNING 2PM TO 11 PM.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN OVERALL FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TO AT TIMES WARM TEMPERATURES.
THAT IS, UNTIL A TROUGH AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY THE
WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS LARGELY USED HERE FOR THE FORECAST POPULATION, BUT NUDGED
WARMER TODAY FOR TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE EXPECTED TRENDS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR HOT WEATHER TODAY ACROSS NE MONTANA BUT A
LITTLE LESS SO IN THE EAST. FURTHER, GIVEN THE HIT OR MISS NATURE,
CONFIDENCE IS MORE MODERATE ON EXACT PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: JULY 2, 2025 AT 0900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THE DAY EXCEPT WITH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRACK EASTWARD. MVFR STRATUS AND
BRIEF IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY AND SHIFTING WINDS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DAWSON-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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