587
FXUS65 KGGW 030139
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
739 PM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TO HOT AGAIN THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE EASTERN ZONES.
2) EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL COME WITH A DAMAGING
WIND AND A SMALL HAIL THREAT.
3) ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER RIDGING BEING FLATTEDED TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT DAY
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 100 FROM WOLF POINT TO GLENDIVE.
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHT MAY LINGER A BIT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
THEN REFIRE CLOSE TO THE ND STATE LINE BEFORE MOVING EAST. WE
COULD DEAL WITH A BRIEF STRONG OR SEVERE STORM AND A MARGINAL RISK
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT THINKING.
OF NOTE: AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE 88D AT GREAT FALLS IS
INOPERATIONAL, SO WE MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY WHERE STORMS INITIATE.
HOPEFULLY THE RADAR RETURNS BY LATE TODAY.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. WARM TO POSSIBLY HOT
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS LARGELY USED HERE FOR THE FORECAST POPULATION, BUT NUDGED
POPS CLOSER TO HRRR GIVING HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS EVENING. TFJ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0130Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH KGGW THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING EAST. EXPECT
GUSTY/ERRATIC AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THESE STORMS. HAIL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT NOT LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE REGION THEN REFIRE
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE ND BORDER. BRIEF MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. TFJ
WIND: SE TO E AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. GUSTY
ERRATIC WIND IS POSSIBLE NEXT TO THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
CALMING SLIGHTLY TO 5 TO 15 KTS THURSDAY MORNING. VEERING TO THE
W TO WNW BEHIND A FRONT MID-MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DAWSON-GARFIELD-
MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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