844
FXUS65 KGGW 030821
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
221 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
2) THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL SEE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH AN ISOLATED OPPORTUNITY
OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ALONG THE MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
3) ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH
FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE BACKSIDE OF AN INTENSE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TODAY, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EAST OF LINE FROM OPHEIM
TO GLASGOW TO JORDAN. TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK, SO A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FROM NOON
THROUGH 8 PM. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH, THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GLASGOW COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY, A DRY START TO THE DAY IS EXPECTED. IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
AFTER 6 PM, WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPANDING NORTH OF FORT PECK LAKE
AFTER 10 PM.
ON SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF THE STRONG STORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA BASED ON A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN MONTANA FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER. CAMS INDICATE THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTH INTO THE GLASGOW CWA.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY THREATS.
A MORE ZONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS STILL
A LOW CHANCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW TO
BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LOW CERTAINTY BEYOND THE
WEEKEND TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS FOR HEAT CONCERNS
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A RIDGE APPEARS TO BRING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S AGAIN NEXT WEEK THOUGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS LARGELY USED HERE FOR THE FORECAST POPULATION. DEVIATIONS
INCLUDE NBM 90 WINDS FROM THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. ALSO INCREASED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH NBM 75 AND NBM 25 BASED ON THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD. NUDGED POPS CLOSER TO CAMS BASED ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTION GOING ON ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF CONVECTION CONTINUING
THROUGH 6 AM THIS MORNING, MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING, AND MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
EVENING ON INDEPENDENCE DAY GOING INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION: FOR KOLF, KSDY, AND KGDV, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. THERE IS HIGH (80 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THESE SITES THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AFTER 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD
THROUGH ABOUT 23Z FRIDAY FOR KSDY AND KGDV. VFR IS EXPECTED FOR
KOLF AND KGGW. THERE IS LOW (30 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE OF MVFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WITH THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 23Z TODAY FOR KGDV
AND KSDY. EXPECT GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS, INCLUDING ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS WITH STORMS. HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
WIND: SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 21 KTS, DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
15Z, BECOMING WEST NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. GUSTY
ERRATIC WIND IS POSSIBLE AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-WESTERN
ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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