899
FXUS65 KGGW 092116
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
316 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HOT JULY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 100S TODAY (WEDNESDAY). A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY,
HIGHLIGHTING THE RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES.
2) A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
3) STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WINDS WILL GENERATE WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN COLLAPSE EASTWARD
TONIGHT. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE REACHED NEAR OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
THANKFULLY, WITH SUCH A DRY ATMOSPHERE, THE HEAT INDEX WILL
ACTUALLY BE LOWER THAN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE. BUT HOT IS STILL
HOT, AND THE HEAT RISK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MAJOR HEAT ILLNESS
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST NORTHEAST MONTANA LOCATIONS FOR
THOSE NOT TAKING NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS.
TODAY, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND ARE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS COULD FORM
STRONG DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS WHICH WOULD MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO
SHOW VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, RAIN RESULTING FROM THEM, WHICH RAISES
CONCERNS FOR DRY LIGHTNING. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
RELIEF, IN THE FORM OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
BUT THE GRADUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WINDS.
HEAT WILL RETURN UNDER ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR OR ABOVE
100 FOR MANY LOCATIONS TODAY.
DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY TO NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.
DEVIATIONS INCLUDED HIGH-RES MODEL WIND DATA TO CAPTURE EXPECTED
DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2115Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY SNEAK INTO THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE HOT HIGH PRESSURE
MAY SUPPRESS SOME OF THAT DEVELOPMENT.
WINDS: WINDS FROM THE W OR NW TODAY AROUND 15 MPH WITH A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS COULD HAPPEN NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT.
LIGHTNING OVER DRY FUELS COULD LEAD TO SOME NEW STARTS AND
DOWNDRAFT GUSTS FROM COLLAPSING CELLS COULD BE BORDERLINE SEVERE,
FANNING NEW FLAMES. EVEN WITH THE GREEN-UP HAVING OCCURRED, FUELS
ARE QUICKLY DRYING AND ARE EVEN LACKING IN OVERALL GREEN-NESS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-
EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN
VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
DAWSON/MCCONE/PRAIRIE/RICHLAND/WIBAUX COUNTIES-NORTHERN VALLEY
AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES-SOUTHERN PETROLEUM AND SOUTHERN
GARFIELD COUNTIES-THE LITTLE ROCKIES-THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
BREAKS INCLUDING THE CHARLES M RUSSELL NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-
MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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