010
FXUS65 KGGW 110833
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
233 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A COOL AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. THEN A RETURN TO 90S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.
2) SMOKE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT. AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY CONFIDENCE ARE SHAKY.
3) A COOL DOWN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
FRONT IS AGAIN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
RELIEF, IN THE FORM OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
SMOKE FROM UP IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND
SHOULD ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. WE
WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THIS SMOKE PLUME WITH THE FIRST TIER OF
COUNTIES IN THE EAST BEING MOST AFFECTED. BUT, THIS COULD SHIFT
FARTHER WEST MAKING THINGS WORSE OR FARTHER EAST AND SKIP OUR CWA
ENTIRELY. AS OF 2AM, VISIBILITIES ARE AS LOW AS 1SM AND AIR
QUALITY IN THESE AREAS IS POOR. THIS PLUME COULD DILUTE PARTIALLY
AS IT ARRIVES, BUT HRRR MODEL PARTICLE CONCENTRATIONS CURRENTLY
MAKE IT LOOK EVEN WORSE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM PLENTYWOOD THE
SIDNEY. WHEN IT FINALLY DOES ARRIVE, WIND STAGNATES FOR THE
EVENING KEEPING THE SMOKE IN PLACE AND PLUNGING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO POTENTIALLY UNHEALTHY AIR. SMOKE DOES LOOK TO LEAVE
THE AREA MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. SINCE THIS IS THE FIRST
TIME TO DETECT THIS PLUME, AND WE ARE ON THE EDGE WILL GIVE THE
DAYSHIFT A SECOND LOOK BEFORE DROPPING A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY ON
THE FAR NE... THOUGH IT WAS HEAVILY CONSIDERED FOR THIS MORNING.
SMOKE SHOULD EXIT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAT WILL RETURN UNDER ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S.
THIS HEAT DOME IS EXPECTED TO EXIT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS DO COOL OFF MID-WEEK,
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM ABOUT TUESDAY ONWARD DOES DROP
OFF RAPIDLY AS ENSEMBLES SPLIT APART QUICKLY THERE AFTER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS INCLUDED... EDITS TO THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF POPS TO BRING
RADAR OBSERVATIONS INTO ACCOUNT FOR PLACEMENT AND BLENDING INTO
THE FUTURE HOURLY FORECAST. SOME SKY COVER GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO GET
OVERCAST SKIES WERE MADE AROUND THE SAME TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE SHOWERS AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IN SMOKES ARRIVAL TODAY AND STAYING OVERNIGHT IS HIGH.
HOWEVER INTENSITY INCLUDING AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
PLACEMENT IS LOW. THIS WILL NEED ONE OR TWO MORE RUNS TO CHECK
CONSISTENCY FOR THESE ITEMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
IS LOW AND SPREAD OUT OVER NEARLY 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENSEMBLES.
HEAT RELIEF FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY TAKE LONGER THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0800Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT THE TERMINALS
AROUND 10-12Z THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR AWHILE. HOWEVER, HRRR SMOKE MODEL IS POINTING TOWARD
SMOKE OVER CENTRAL SASAKATCHEWAN MAKING IT INTO THE EASTERN
TERMINALS INCLUDING KSDY AROUND 22-01Z. THE EXTENT OF VISIBILITY
OBSTRUCTION IS IN QUESTION WHEN IT ARRIVES. THOUGH AS OF 2AM IT IS
CURRENTLY IFR AT THE CENTER OF THE PLUME UP NORTH. THIS MAY
PARTIALLY DISSIPATE TO MVFR BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES BUT CONFIDENCE
IS VERY SHAKEY. ONCE IT ARRIVES IT IS NOT LIKELY TO EXIT THE KSDY
TILL ROUGHLY 12Z TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS: NW AROUND 10 TO 20 KTS THIS MORNING. REDUCING TO 10 TO 15
KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. THEN GAINING A S COMPONENT MID MORNING SATURDAY.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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