343
FXUS65 KGGW 112000
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
200 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A COOLER AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY. THEN A RETURN TO 90S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN.
2) SMOKE FROM CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY FROM PLENTYWOOD THROUGH SIDNEY, AND
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT. SMOKE WILL DISPERSE AND MOVE AWAY
EARLY ON SATURDAY.
3) A COOL DOWN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
RELIEF, IN THE FORM OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BRIEFLY TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S.
SMOKE FROM UP IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN EDGE OF MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SMOKE PLUME COULD
DILUTE PARTIALLY AS IT ARRIVES, BUT HRRR MODEL PARTICLE
CONCENTRATIONS CURRENTLY MAKE IT LOOK EVEN WORSE ACROSS OUR AREA
FROM PLENTYWOOD TO SIDNEY. THIS EVENING, WINDS STAGNATE, KEEPING
THE SMOKE IN PLACE AND PLUNGING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
POTENTIALLY UNHEALTHY AIR. SMOKE DOES LOOK TO LEAVE THE AREA ON
SATURDAY MORNING. NOT THINKING A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IS
NECESSARY, BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
HEAT WILL RETURN UNDER ANOTHER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 90S.
THIS HEAT DOME IS EXPECTED TO EXIT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS DO COOL OFF MID-WEEK,
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FROM ABOUT TUESDAY ONWARD DOES DROP
OFF RAPIDLY AS ENSEMBLES SPLIT APART QUICKLY THERE AFTER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS INCLUDED WIND AND SKY COVER GRID ADJUSTMENTS TO GET
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS BETTER.
CONFIDENCE IN SMOKE ARRIVAL TODAY AND STAYING OVERNIGHT IS HIGH.
HOWEVER INTENSITY INCLUDING AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY ALONG WITH
PLACEMENT IS LOW. THIS WILL NEED ONE OR TWO MORE RUNS TO CHECK
CONSISTENCY FOR THESE ITEMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
IS LOW AND SPREAD OUT OVER NEARLY 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENSEMBLES.
HEAT RELIEF FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY TAKE LONGER THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 1958Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: HRRR SMOKE MODEL IS POINTING TOWARD SMOKE OVER
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN MAKING IT INTO THE EASTERN TERMINALS
INCLUDING KSDY AROUND 22-01Z. THE EXTENT OF VISIBILITY OBSTRUCTION
IS IN QUESTION WHEN IT ARRIVES. THIS MAY PARTIALLY DISSIPATE TO
MVFR BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY SHAKY. ONCE IT
ARRIVES IT IS NOT LIKELY TO EXIT THE KSDY TILL ROUGHLY 12Z
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS: NW AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS, REDUCING TO 10 TO 15 KTS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
CALM TONIGHT. THEN GAINING A S COMPONENT MID MORNING SATURDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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