497
FXUS65 KGGW 120826
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
226 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING HIGHS IN THE 90S TODAY AND SUNDAY.
2) SMOKE FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS COVERING AREAS EAST OF
MALTA, JORDAN AND MILES CITY EARLY THIS MORNING. AIR QUALITY HAS
BECOME UNHEALTHY AS OF 07Z EAST OF MT 13. SMOKE WILL DISPERSE AND
MOVE AWAY AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
3) RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM TODAY FOR
LOW RH AND GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES.
4) A COOL DOWN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS MOVING ACROSS NE
MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SMOKE PLUME IS PRODUCING VERY
POOR AIR QUALITY EAST OF MT 13 AS OF 07Z AND MODELS ARE NOT
HANDLING IT WELL. SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING WHICH WILL
MOVE THE SMOKE TO THE EAST AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA TODAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 90S TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER.
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 134 (MOST OF PHILLIPS AND VALLEY COUNTIES) WILL
HAVE LOW RH IN THE TEENS COMBINED WITH WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR THAT AREA FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM
TODAY.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON MONDAY AND ALLOW A
STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS MONTANA. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL DEPEND ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO A LARGE RANGE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE
NORTH AND STAY MAINLY IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FREQUENT WAVES MOVE ACROSS MONTANA WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN WYOMING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IN SMOKE DISPERSING OVER THE AREA TODAY IS HIGH BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW AS MODELS HAVE UNDERFORECASTED THE
EXTENT OF THE SMOKE OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE HEAT TODAY AND SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
IS LOW AND SPREAD OUT OVER NEARLY 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0820Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: IFR-MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION: SMOKE FROM NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILDFIRE HAS REDUCED
VISIBILITY ACROSS NE MONTANA OVERNIGHT. THE SMOKE WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH 2 TO 4 MILE VISIBILITY UNTIL SW WINDS
DEVELOP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AND MOVES THE SMOKE TO THE EAST. THERE
WILL BE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY BECOMING SW 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND WEST TO NW 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND NORTH TO NW 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHERN VALLEY AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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