476
FXUS65 KGGW 122051
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
251 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH FIRE DANGER
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA.
2) COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SMOKE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED EAST WHILE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TAKE
HOLD ACROSS NE MONTANA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S AND LOW 90S WHILE WINDS TURN NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO
20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 MPH. MEANWHILE, HUMIDITY READINGS WILL
BOTTOM NEAR 10 TO 15 PERCENT. WHERE THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MORE PERSISTENT, A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
8PM. THIS IS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 134. OUTSIDE THIS REGION, DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED, BUT TRUE RED FLAG
CRITERIA IS FORECAST TO BE MORE ISOLATED AND NOT AS PERSISTENT.
THAT SAID IT IS CERTAINLY A CLOSE CALL AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS STILL EXIST FOR THE ENTIRE REGION REGARDLESS OF EXACT
WIND AND HUMIDITY OUTCOMES.
FOR SUNDAY, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE BUT LIGHTER
WINDS SHOULD MEAN ELEVATED BUT NOT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE ON MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST QPF
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PORTIONS OF NE MONTANA COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.50" DURING
THIS PERIOD NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH MARKEDLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY BEFORE COOL AND WET WEATHER TAKE HOLD EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE NBM WAS LARGELY FOLLOWED, A BLEND
WITH NBM 90 WAS USED FOR NEAR TERM WINDS TO BEST MATCH CURRENT AND
EXPECTED TRENDS.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2030Z ON JULY 12, 2025
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AMID NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS RANGING 10 TO 15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS
WILL REDUCE TO 10 TO 15 KTS IN THE EVENING AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 PERCENT. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL
MEAN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 134
WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM.
OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA, TRUE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED AND NOT AS PERSISTENT. THAT SAID IT
REMAINS A VERY CLOSE CALL AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
CERTAINLY FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY THOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHERN VALLEY
AND NORTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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