792
FXUS65 KGGW 132023
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
2) LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NE MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING.
2) WIDESPREAD WET WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN
PLACE AREA WIDE BY TUESDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 0.25" AND 0.75" FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONFINED TO THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY AND MONDAY, BUT AS IT SHIFTS
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD TO THE ENTIRE REGION. WINDS
COULD BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS FORT PECK
LAKE.
MONDAY EVENING, HREF MAX ENSEMBLE WIND GUST AND MAX UPDRAFT
HELICITY LEND SUPPORT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THE
TIMING MAINLY AFTER 4PM. OTHERWISE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. IN FACT, WIDESPREAD 0.25" TO 0.75" OF
TOTAL QPF ARE EXPECTED TO BE COMMON ACROSS NE MONTANA WITH
ISOLATED 1" TOTALS WHERE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR THROUGH
TUESDAY. TUESDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE FAR COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AN EARLY LOOK AT ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK BUT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER
CONTINUING AT TIMES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NE MONTANA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
STEADY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, SOMEWHAT LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
ON A SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
EXPECTED RISK. NBM WAS OTHERWISE LARGELY USED FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WHICH CAPTURED EXPECTED OVERALL TRENDS WELL FOR THIS CYCLE.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2015Z ON JULY 13, 2025
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AMID HIGH AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF AREA TERMINALS.
WINDS: LOOK FOR EAST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT, BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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