198
FXUS65 KGGW 280809
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
209 AM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT INTO NE MONTANA THIS EVENING AND
HANG AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
- COLD FRONT MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY),
BRINGING NORTH WINDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A WEAK JET STREAM WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE
FIRST LOCATIONS TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CLOSER TO CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE IS MODERATE (50 PERCENT)
CONFIDENCE OF PETROLEUM, SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS, AND GARFIELD COUNTIES
RECEIVING AT LEAST ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THERE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH (50 TO 60 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE OF ALL OTHER LOCATIONS
RECEIVING LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OUT SATURDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED BY LABOR DAY.
THERE IS HIGH (70 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND LOCATION WITH THIS FRONT. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASED WINDS WITH NBM 90 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NBM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND LOCATION FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AFTER THIS PERIOD. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN NBM TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0830Z
FLIGHT CAT: VFR.
DISCUSSION: QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. THEN A PUSH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS MODERATE (50 PERCENT)
CONFIDENCE OF CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS: FOR KSDY, KGDV, AND KOLF, LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 16Z. FOR KGGW, EAST AT 6 TO 11
KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 16 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
EQUIPMENT: KGDV AWOS IS CURRENTLY NOT SENDING METARS. AMENDMENTS
WILL NOT BE SCHEDULED.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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