021
FXUS65 KGGW 282201
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
401 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL DRIFT INTO NE MONTANA THIS EVENING AND
HANG AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME.
- COLD FRONT MOVES IN EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY),
BRINGING NORTH WINDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A WEAK JET STREAM WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW
MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. THE
FIRST LOCATIONS TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CLOSER TO CENTRAL MONTANA. THERE IS MODERATE (50 PERCENT)
CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF PETROLEUM, SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS, GARFIELD AND WIBAUX COUNTIES RECEIVING AT LEAST ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN. BEYOND THOSE AREAS, CHANCES ARE LOW
(<20%) OF RECEIVING MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT, BRIEF SHOWER.
SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OUT SATURDAY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED BY LABOR DAY.
THERE IS HIGH (70 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THAT WILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND LOCATION WITH THIS FRONT. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MADE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO BASE NBM FOR THE AFTERNOON UPDATE TODAY.
WINDS SEEM TO BE HANGING WITHIN A REASONABLE ENVELOPE OF THE NBM,
THEREFORE DIDN'T SEE A NEED TO BLEND IN NBM90 AT THIS TIME.
THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION LIKELIHOOD
AND LOCATION (<30%) THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS AND A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CLIFF
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 2200Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY, AND THERE WILL BE SOME LOW PROBABILITY (<30%) OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF MANY OF THE
AIRFIELDS/TERMINALS IN THE REGION, MOSTLY ON FRIDAY.
WIND: SE AND UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THEN, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWER OR STORM.
EQUIPMENT: KGDV AWOS IS CURRENTLY NOT SENDING METARS. AMENDMENTS
WILL NOT BE SCHEDULED.
CLIFF/GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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