293
FXUS65 KGGW 310316
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
916 PM MDT SAT AUG 30 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FINISH OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN, EVIDENCED BY A WEAK REX-BLOCK LOW
PRESSURE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS PERSISTED THROUGH MONTANA,
BUT WILL GRADUALLY BE SHUNTED EAST LATER THIS EVENING. THIS
AFTERNOON, RANDOMLY PLACED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVERYWHERE BUT OUR WESTERN ZONES. ASIDE
FROM THE NORMAL OR COMMON SUMMERTIME THUNDERSTORMS LITTLE IMPACT
IS EXPECTED, AS THE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR KEEP THE HAIL THREAT
AT ZERO. THE STRONGER AXIS OF INSTABILITY/ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
DRY AND WARM WEATHER FOR US TO NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH LABOR
DAY.
LATER IN THE FORECAST, A FAIRLY STRONG CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SWING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY, AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL DROP A COLD FRONT INTO MONTANA. A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY NEAR THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER WITH THE FRONT. PRESSURE RISES AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION SUGGESTS WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE, AND MAY REACH LAKE
WIND CRITERIA, BUT MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING THIS YET. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLOWER COLD AIR ADVECTION, WHICH MAY SUPPRESS
THE WINDS SLIGHTLY. COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGER THROUGH MIDWEEK
WHILE SHARP WESTERN RIDGE SLIDES SLOWLY EAST BY THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM, ASIDE FROM THE FIRST 24 TO 36
HOURS WHERE MOSTLY HI-RES MODELS WERE FAVORED FOR DETAILED POPS
AND WINDS.
CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE REGION TODAY
IS LOW TO AVERAGE.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0315Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: EXPECT CALM AND NEAR DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED SHWOERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS BRIEFLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
DRY AGAIN THAT EVENING.
WIND: S TO SE AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. VEERING SW TO
W SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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