663
FXUS65 KGGW 100703
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
103 AM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD HAZE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING.
- A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WILL AID IN A FEW SHOWERS
THIS MORNING.
- A STORM SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF ACCUMULATING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GGW
CWA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EAST
OF HWY 191. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL HELP BRING
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MATCH UP WITH PEAK HEATING ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.
THEN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ACCUMULATING RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD. THERE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING A WETTING
RAIN, BUT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATED FROM THE NBM TO INCREASE WINDS ON DAY 1 WITH A MIX OF NBM
90. ALSO ADJUSTED POPS FOR DAY 1 TO AT LEAST INCLUDE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR A BROADER PORTION OF THE AREA.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THERE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE ON COOLER
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT ON THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATE: 0900Z, SEPTEMBER 10TH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR
PATTERN: A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL AID IN ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH 18Z. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ATTEMPT TO REACH KGDV AND KSDY.
WINDS: FOR KGGW, SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 14 TO
20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. FOR ALL OTHER SITES, EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS,
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 16Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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