471
FXUS65 KGGW 131116
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
516 AM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONABLE NORMALS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND THE GREAT BASIN
WITH A BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDS FROM MEXICO TO CANADA OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES, NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A WEAK LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WYOMING.
BY SUNDAY THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE PUSHED EAST ENOUGH
FOR THE MAIN MOISTURE PLUME TO KEEP STORM DEVELOPMENT MOSTLY IN
NORTH DAKOTA.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND MERGES WITH
THE LINGERING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE GENERAL TROUGH OVER THE REGION,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE
NORMALS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM MOSTLY LEFT IN PLACE THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS IT CAPTURED
OVERALL EXPECTED TRENDS WELL AND MATCHED FOR COLLABORATION. CONFIDENCE
THUS REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH ON AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE TIMING, PLACEMENT, AND EXACT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS GIVEN ENSEMBLE SHIFTS RUN TO RUN.
AVIATION
VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. ISOLATED AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
EQUIPMENT: NOTAM COMMS ISSUES WITH THE KSDY OBSERVATION REMAIN.
AMD NOT SKED WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL METARS ARE AVAILABLE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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