626
FXUS65 KGGW 140425
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1025 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING, A FEW MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY.
3) OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLE NORMALS THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE WILL MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE
WITH SOME TRAINING AND SLOW MOTION OF THE STORMS. THE TROUGH
PUSHES EAST ENOUGH FOR SUNDAY THAT ASIDE FROM ISOLATED COVERAGE
MOST OF NE MONTANA WILL REMAIN DRY.
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SCENE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND MERGE WITH THE LINGERING LOW OVER NORTH DAKOTA. THIS
WILL LEND SUPPORT TO THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES, FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE TO
REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE AVERAGES THROUGH THE WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM POPULATED MOST OF THE FORECAST JUST FINE WITH A FEW TWEAKS FOR
CONSISTENCY AND COLLABORATION. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK AHEAD WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT TIMES. CONFIDENCE IS MORE MODERATE ON TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNT FOR A GIVEN LOCATION GIVEN THE NATURE OF
CONVECTION.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0415Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR
DISCUSSION: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. LOW CEILINGS(MVFR) ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STORMS OR SHOWERS.
THERE IS A A 40-60% CHANCE FOR LOW CEILINGS AT KSDY, 60-80%
CHANCE FOR FOG OVER KOLF (AIRPORT SHUTDOWN) , AND MUCH HIGHER
CHANCE 80-100% OF FOG JUST NORTHEAST OF THE KOLF AND KSDY FROM
08-16Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT 14-15Z.
THEN, CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING.
WIND: GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUN UP. BECOMING SW TO
W SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ERRATIC AND GUSTY WIND POSSIBLE NEAR THE
STRONGER STORMS.
EQUIPMENT: NOTAM COMMS ISSUES WITH THE KSDY OBSERVATION REMAIN.
AMD NOT SKED WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL METARS ARE AVAILABLE.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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