891
FXUS65 KGGW 150148
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
748 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
DISCUSSION
0745 PM UPDATE:
A FEW MINOR CHANGES WER MADE TO POPS, SKY AND WIND TO BRING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS INTO A HOURLY STATE FOR THE TAFS. LIMITED CHANGES
WERE OBSERVED. MAIN AMONG THESE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
PATCHY FOG THAT WILL MAKE IT DOWN INTO PLENTYWOOD AND POPLAR
NEAR RIVER VALLEY BOTTOMS. GAH
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE REGION INTO TUESDAY.
2) DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AT TIMES THROUGH TUESDAY.
WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STEADIEST STORMS, BUT GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF ON QPF IN RECENT TRENDS.
DRIER WEATHER OVERALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH THE OVERALL TROUGH HAVING SHIFTED EAST. THAT SAID, SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW PRESSURE IN PROXIMITY TO KEEP SHOWER CHANCES
GOING IN THE EASTERN ZONES. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THIS WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS USED FOR THE MOST PART WITH SUBTLE FIXES FOR CONSISTENCY
AND COLLABORATION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON AN ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUING EARLY THIS WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
TROUGH SHIFTING EAST SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS, BUT SOME
ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAINS.
RJM
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 2315Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: UPPER TROUGH WILL GUIDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT
WATCH FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY OR CEILINGS IF A STORM
TRACKS DIRECTLY OVER A TAF SITE. FOG IS EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THE
TAF SITES FROM 09-16Z INCLUDING KPWD AND KPO1. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT KOLF DIRECTLY WITH THE CHANCE ONLY BEING AROUN
10-20%.
WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. TURNING W AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON
MONDAY.
EQUIPMENT: NOTAM COMMS ISSUES WITH THE KSDY OBSERVATION REMAIN.
AMD NOT SKED WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL METARS ARE AVAILABLE.
RJM/GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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