757
FXUS65 KGGW 152045
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
245 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TUESDAY.
2) DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE REGION ARE KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS NE MT, BUT COVERAGE REMAINS
SPOTTY AND THE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK. PRECIP MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAD TO MAKE SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE GIVEN MODEL DATA BASED ON LOCAL RADAR REFLECTIVITY. THIS TREND
OF MESSY, HIT OR MISS SMALL STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH SOMETHING A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEAR OUR EASTERN
BORDER WITH NORTH DAKOTA AND CALMER/QUIETER CONDITIONS IN OUR
WESTERN ZONES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MAIN DEVIATIONS: WINDS WERE MIXED WITH A BLEND OF HI-RES FV3 AND
HRRR FOR DAY 1. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH HI-RES MODELS FOR
DAY 1 AND 2 DUE TO THE NBM UNDER FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 2045Z 9/15
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MAINLY VFR, THEN MVFR IN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DISCUSSION: UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IN THE REGION WILL KEEP THE THREAT AROUND FOR SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
WIND: TODAY, GENERALLY FROM THE W OR NW AROUND 10 KTS BEFORE THE
STORMS, THEN ERRATIC AND GUSTY IF A STORM HAPPENS TO PASS NEARBY
OR DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THEN TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, NEAR
CALM.
EQUIPMENT: NOTAM COMMS ISSUES WITH THE KSDY OBSERVATION REMAIN.
AMD NOT SKED WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL METARS ARE AVAILABLE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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