249
FXUS65 KGGW 161019
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
419 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.
- DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE REGION ARE KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS NE MT, BUT COVERAGE REMAINS
SPOTTY AND THE FORCING IS RELATIVELY WEAK. PRECIP MODEL DATA
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TREND OF MESSY, HIT OR MISS SMALL
STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
LATER THIS WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH SOMETHING A
LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE COMPLEX UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. BRIEF RIDGING OCCURS OVER MONTANA ON FRIDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE PULLS A STRONG UPPER JET ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL WEATHER WILL BE
GENERALLY WARM AND DRY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH HI-RES MODELS FOR DAY 1 AND 2 DUE TO
THE NBM UNDER FORECASTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH TONIGHT.
AVIATION
MAINLY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS IN THE REGION WILL KEEP THE THREAT AROUND FOR SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS.
EQUIPMENT: NOTAM COMMS ISSUES WITH THE KSDY OBSERVATION REMAIN.
AMD NOT SKED WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL METARS ARE AVAILABLE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page