573
FXUS65 KGGW 092139
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
339 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN PUSH INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH NORTHEAST MONTANA'S PRELIMINARY WEEKEND TOTALS BETWEEN
0.25" AND 1".
- CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE INCREASING NORTH OF HWY 2 AND AREAS OF
HIGHER ELEVATION.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THROUGH SATURDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BRINGING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION, CAUSING ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON SATURDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE EXITS
EASTWARD.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MOISTURE AHEAD OF TS
PRISCILLA. INCREASED MOISTURE ALONGSIDE A SURFACE LOW PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL GENERATE A STRONG COLD FRONT ON THE BACK
SIDE OF IT. THE COLD FRONT AND AREAS BEHIND IT HAVE A NEAR 20
DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL PROVIDE A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT FOR STRONG WINDS.
RAIN TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE GENERALLY HIGHEST
NORTHWEST OF I-94. CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT ARE INCREASING
WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS. CURRENT FORECASTED PROBABILITIES
GREATER THAN 1" OF SNOW IN THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND AREAS OF HIGHER
ELEVATION NORTH AND EAST OF GLASGOW. FOR THE REST OF NORTHEAST
MONTANA THERE ARE CHANCES FOR 0.1", PROBABLY JUST INTERMITTENT
FLURRIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: COOLER CONDITIONS WILL STEADY OUT
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. WHILE MOST PERIODS WILL BE DRY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS HINTING AT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE IN THE
FLOW. ENSEMBLES HAVE NOT DECIDED YET ON HOW THE SW FLOW WILL SET
UP OR PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THIS SHORTWAVE AND ANY
RAINFALL IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
BLENDED DAY 1 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WITH NBM10 AND DAY 1-2 WINDS
WITH NBM90 AND HIRESWARW & HIRESWFV. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR HIGH WIND WARNING ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 2130Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
WIND: NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER 12Z TOMORROW AND BECOME SOUTHEAST AT
15 TO 20 KTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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