979
FXUS65 KGGW 102024
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
224 PM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR FORT PECK LAKE UNTIL 9PM.
2) CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO PUSH THROUGH NE MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH 0.25" TO 1.25" THE EXPECTED RANGE ACROSS
THE AREA.
3) TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO END AS A
WINTRY MIX OR WET SNOW, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE FORT PECK LAKE REGION WITH
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSISTING THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR DRY AND
WARM WEATHER ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE PATTERN SLIDES EAST,
HIGHS REACHING THE 70S FOR MOST PLACES IF NOT NEAR 80 DEGREES.
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL DEEPEN LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH NE
MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 0.25" TO 1.25" THE
EXPECTED RANGE. SOME ENSEMBLES SHOW A SHARP CUTOFF IN THE
SOUTHEAST ZONES SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING CLOSELY MONITORED.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY ENDING AS WET SNOW FOR THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTS
GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE STRATIFORM RAIN.
ENSEMBLES SHOW BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AT TIMES FOR THOSE IN NE MONTANA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM AND NBM90 WERE USED FOR SHORT TERM WINDS GIVEN THE LAKE WIND
CONCERNS. OTHERWISE, NBM HANDLED EXPECTED OUTCOMES WELL.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A COOLER AND WET WEEKEND BUT MORE
MODERATE ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE DUE TO
RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIABILITY AND QUESTIONS SURROUNDING HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION LINGERS AS COLDER TEMPERATURES ENTER THE SCENE.
BLENDED NBM AND NBM90 FOR WINDS TODAY AND SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
MARGINAL LAKE WIND ADVISORY TODAY, AND LIKELY LAKE WIND ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: OCTOBER 10, 2025 AT 2015Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
WIND: SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KTS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, DECREASING TO ABOUT 10 KTS BY
SATURDAY MORNING.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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