286
FXUS65 KGGW 112023
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
223 PM MDT SAT OCT 11 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH NE MONTANA FROM TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY EVENING WITH UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED.
- FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL DEEPEN LATE THIS WEEKEND AND PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH NE
MONTANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE, BUT THE CONSENSUS IS NARROWING IN ON TOTALS OF AROUND
A HALF INCH BEING COMMON. A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY ENDING AS WET SNOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTS GUSTY WINDS ON
SUNDAY AS WELL WITH THE STRATIFORM RAIN. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
ENSEMBLES SHOW BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO CONTINUED SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR THOSE IN NE
MONTANA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE WAS BLENDED IN FOR SHORT TERM WINDS GIVEN
THE LAKE WIND CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A
COOLER AND WET WEEKEND, BUT MORE MODERATE ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PRECIPITATION TYPE DUE TO RUN TO RUN MODEL VARIABILITY AND
QUESTIONS SURROUNDING HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION LINGERS ON SUNDAY AS
COLDER/DRIER AIR ENTERS THE SCENE.
AVIATION
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR TO IFR.
DISCUSSION: AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER WITH BROADLY MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. STEADIER
SHOWERS LIKELY WILL COME ALONG WITH PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS WILL BE SUSTAINED
FROM THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM MDT SUNDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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