658
FXUS65 KGGW 120815
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
215 AM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL THROUGH TODAY. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- COOLER, WETTER PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY BAND OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH
NE MONTANA TODAY WITH A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN
PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY ENDING AS WET SNOW (5-15% CHANCE) ALONG
THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SUPPORTS GUSTY WINDS TODAY
AS WELL WITH THE STRATIFORM RAIN. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
ENSEMBLES SHOW BROAD UPPER TROUGH PATTERN PERSISTING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO CONTINUED SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN NORMAL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES FOR THOSE IN NE
MONTANA.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS FROM NBM INCLUDE THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE WAS BLENDED
IN FOR SHORT TERM WINDS GIVEN THE LAKE WIND CONCERNS FOR TODAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A COOLER AIR INTO THE WORK WEEK.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS LOW. ENSEMBLES HAVE NOT BEGUN TO SYNC UP MESOSCALE
EFFECTS YET, AND THESE WILL BE WHERE WEAKER RAIN BANDS FORM WHEN
THEY DO PASS THROUGH.
GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0800Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR TO IFR.
DISCUSSION: AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING, CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER WITH BROADLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 09-04Z AND RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH ROUGHLY
21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE SNOW DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY DUE TO WARMER TEMPS, THERE IS A
SMALL NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE RUNS (5-10% CHANCE) BRINGING IT BRIEFLY
THROUGH KGGW AND KOLF AROUND 15-18Z, AND ANY SNOW WOULD PRODUCE
IFR VISIBILITY WITH ITS PASSAGE.
WIND: NW AT 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTING 30 TO 40 KTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. CALMING TO 10 TO 15 KTS GUSTING TO 20 IN THE EVENING.
THEN, BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE NORTH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-GARFIELD-MCCONE-
PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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