422
FXUS65 KGGW 130816
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
216 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
- A BRIEF WARM UP LOOKS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS A RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
LOWS IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. HIGHS TODAY LASTING
INTO FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, IN THE 40S AND 50S,
BEFORE A SLIGHT WARM UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
WETTER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA AGAIN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A TROUGH FORMING OVER CALIFORNIA BEGINS
TO LIFT PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE LIFT ZONES ACROSS THE
REGION AROUND THAT TIME FRAME.
THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH
COULD RAISE DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MODEL
AGREEMENT BREAKS DOWN HERE WITH ENSEMBLES PULLING APART AROUND THE
TIMING OF THE EXIT OF THIS RIDGE. SEVERAL RUNS DELAY THE EXIT
WHILE THE BULK PUSH IT THROUGH FASTER.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS FOR TODAYS WERE FOCUSED ON THE SKY CONDITIONS OVER THE
YELLOWSTONE VALLEY IN THE MORNING HOURS WHERE PARTLY CLOUDY TO
CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT IN THE MODELS WHILE OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY THE
AFTERNOON BUT HAD TO HAND EDIT THIS AREA TO CREATE A MORE PROPER
DELAYED NORTHWEST SWEEPING MOTION OF THE CLOUD FIELD FOR TAFS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING OUT OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY
IS STILL LOW.
RDJ/GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0800Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR - VFR
DISCUSSION: MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLOWLY AND RISE ABOVE
VFR AT THE TERMINALS AROUND 18 TO 21Z. PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR IN
THE AFTERNOON OVER KSDY AND KGDV FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BUT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REAPPEAR AT ALL TERMINAL TONIGHT AND LAST INTO
TUESDAY.
WIND: NW TO N AT 5 TO 15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING. VEERING NE TO E
INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THEN, INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KTS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
RDJ/GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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