603
FXUS65 KGGW 150754
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
154 AM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) THE NEXT ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS SET TO MOVE IN TODAY
AND CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.
2 UPPER RIDGING MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY
ON SUNDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO PLENTY
OF RAINFALL BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT, MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE POINTING TOWARD HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS EAST AND LIGHTER
RAINFALL TOTALS WEST.
THE LOW WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND SHIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THAT RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS MONTANA ON SUNDAY. LOOK
FOR DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
MADE SOME DEVIATIONS FROM NBM ON POPS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT MAINLY TO LINE UP WITH NEARBY OFFICES. NO OTHER
DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM AT THIS TIME. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE RAIN
OCCURRING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY IN MOST AREAS AND IN THE EAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 15 AT 0800Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR - IFR
DISCUSSION: LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A
RANGE IN MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STEADY RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. REDUCED VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WIND: VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EARLY BECOME EAST TO SE
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING. EAST TO SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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