915
FXUS65 KGGW 152012
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
212 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) COOL AND WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER.
2) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
3) UPPER RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
DRIER AND MILDER WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A DEEP WESTERN U.S. TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST LOOKS
TO SEND SIGNIFICANT ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD, NBM
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AND INCH OR MORE OF TOTAL QPF FOR EASTERN
LOCATIONS. THE LATEST HREF 48 HOUR MEAN QPF THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
IS ALSO IN THE 1.00 TO 1.50 INCH RANGE NEAR THE MT/ND BORDER WITH
THE MAX ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATING NARROW BANDS IN EXCESS OF 2"
FOR THESE AREAS. HYDROLOGY CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE
STRATIFORM AND GRADUAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED, BUT BE MINDFUL OF
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES.
ON FRIDAY THE LOW WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS BECOMING
MORE ISOLATED. THESE SHOWERS MAY BECOME ENHANCED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
A NEW SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID, ALSO
LOOK FOR STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN
LOW AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
FORT PECK LAKE AREA MAY BE AN APPROPRIATE CONSIDERATION FOR FUTURE
SHIFTS TO MAKE AT SOME POINT.
OVER THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES CARVE OUT THE NEXT RIDGE PATTERN
BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, EXTENDING INTO MONTANA.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS USED THIS FORECAST CYCLE EXCEPT FOR SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR
COLLABORATION AND CONSISTENCY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON COOL
AND WET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS - THOUGH MORE MODERATE
ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNT GIVEN THE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE AND POTENTIAL
FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER LOCALLY ENHANCING RAINFALL.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 15 AT 2000Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: MVFR - IFR
DISCUSSION: LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN, STEADY AT TIMES ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS LEADING TO REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND ASSOCIATED
CEILINGS. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO RESULT IN NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH
STRATUS.
WIND: EAST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KTS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
NORTH AT 10 TO 20 KTS ON THURSDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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