878
FXUS65 KGGW 070914
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
214 AM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDY AND WETTER WEATHER
KICKING UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HI-LINE.
- COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO RISE ABOVE THE 30S.
- A STRONG BRIEF WARM UP IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY WITH HIGHS RISING
INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN
AND LIGHT SNOW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL BRING EVEN
COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS LIKE THE OPHEIM PLATEAU AND BIG SHEEPS IS ALSO EXPECTED
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLE CURRENTLY HAVE A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW IN MOST AREAS LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGH END OF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NEAR AN INCH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. PATCHY
ICY CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN TO WATCH FOR SATURDAY MORNING
EVEN IN AREAS THAT DO NOT ACCUMULATE ANY SNOW. SATURDAY WILL BE A
COLD DAY IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS IN THE NE AND IN THE 30S IN MOST
OTHER AREAS. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL ALSO BE A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NE AND IN THE TEENS IN MOST OTHER AREAS.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. THIS WILL EXIT QUICKLY WITH TEMPS
MODERATING OUT FOR 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH MID-WEEK AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ENTERS THE WARMER SIDE OF ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NO DEVIATIONS FROM NBM WERE OBSERVED.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ENSEMBLES HAVE VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DOWN TO NEAR THE MESO-SCALE.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS WHILE ENSEMBLES LOOK
ON AVERAGE MOSTLY ZONAL.... THERE ARE ENOUGH MEMBERS WITH
SHORTWAVES THAT ARE OUT OF SYNC ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
GOING BACK TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT THESE PERIODS COULD
CHANGE EASILY IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0800Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR TO IFR.
DISCUSSION: LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE NE CORNER OF THE STATE
THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING TO THE SW
SLOWLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. VERY BRIEF IFR CEILINGS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AT KOLF AND KSDY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON TODAY
AND THEN AGAIN EARLY MORNING SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL SITES WILL DROP
INTO AT LEAST MVFR BY ABOUT 06Z LATE TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LAST
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 12 AND
18Z TODAY WITH THE RAIN-SNOW MIX LINE BEING JUST NORTH OF KGGW
AND KOLF. RAIN-SNOW MIX WILL RETURN AROUND 02Z THIS EVENING AND GO
THROUGH ROUGHLY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. IFR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SNOW.
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FROM 00-07Z THIS EVENING...
IF... STRONG GUSTY WINDS DECOUPLE FROM THE SURFACE ANY TIME AFTER
SUNDOWN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-30% CHANCE).
SFC WIND: LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH SUN-UP. BECOMING SE AT 5 TO
15 KTS INTO THE LATE MORNING. THEN VEERING TO THE NW RAPIDLY
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 GUST 30
KTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING HOURS.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST SATURDAY
FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
GARFIELD-MCCONE-PETROLEUM.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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