615
FXUS65 KGGW 222116
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
216 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM AND DRY WEATHER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- PATTERN SHIFT STARTS MONDAY WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDING IN.
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS TEMPS
FALL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 30-50% CHANCES FOR 1" SNOW
EXIST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
- WINTRY TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER RIDGING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S IN MOST AREAS.
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FOR MONDAY. EARLY
MONDAY MORNING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN (40-60% CHANCE) WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AS WARM AIR ALOFT REMAINS IN
PLACE. BY MIDDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN USHERING IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOLLOWED BY CHANCES
FOR SNOW AS MUCH COLDER BUILDS INTO EASTERN MT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
MODERATE IN THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE WHILE THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING WETTER THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATIONS
REMAINS LOWER THEN WE WOULD LIKE THEM TO BE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE SYSTEM EXITING TO
THE EAST WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE BIG SHEEP
MOUNTAINS EAST INTO NORTH DAKOTA. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE COLD
(HIGHS BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS),BUT THE SUN SHOULD PEAK
THROUGH QUICKLY DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE ARE WIDE VARIATIONS IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN THE
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NO DEVIATIONS FROM NBM.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 21Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: PERIODIC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH FROM
TIME TO TIME.
WIND: EXPECT WINDS TO BE UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN DIRECTION, THOUGH TERRAIN
INFLUENCES COULD MAKE WINDS A BIT MORE VARIABLE.
LLWS: A WEAK JET STREAK JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL PUSH THROUGH
TONIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF LLWS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
EQUIPMENT: KOLF AND SDY WILL REMAIN AMD NOT SKED UNTIL REPAIRS
CAN BE MADE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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