623
FXUS65 KGGW 231132
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
432 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- PATTERN SHIFT STARTS MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH
THE WEEK.
- RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
- WINTRY TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A FLAT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY TODAY.
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FOR MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING RAIN IN THE SOUTH
AND SNOW IN THE NORTH ON MONDAY MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTH, THE SNOW IN THE NORTH WILL SWITCH TO RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND THE RAIN CHANGING
BACK TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS EAST INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE COLD (HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS), BUT THE SUN SHOULD PEAK THROUGH
QUICKLY DISSIPATING CLOUD COVER.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR THANKSGIVING
AND BEYOND WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THERE ARE
WIDE VARIATIONS IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATION FROM NBM INCLUDE INCREASING WINDS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, AND MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ON MONDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE RAIN/SNOW EVENT ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY IS
MODERATE TO HIGH. THE MAIN ISSUE REMAINS SNOW AMOUNT, WITH A RANGE
OF ZERO TO 7 INCHES.
LATER IN THE WEEK, THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES FOR INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SNOWFALL.
AVIATION
VFR. PERIODIC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH FROM TIME TO
TIME.
EQUIPMENT: KOLF AND SDY WILL REMAIN AMD NOT SKED UNTIL REPAIRS
CAN BE MADE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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