169
FXUS65 KGGW 240954
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
254 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON TO IMPACT NORTHEAST MONTANA.
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT.
- WINTRY TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE FOR THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
TRAVELERS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL
PUSH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH THE WARM FRONT, AS SOUNDING SUGGEST A SLOW MOISTENING OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, DELAYING PRECIPITATION UNTIL MID LEVELS COOL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ICE IN THE CLOUDS FOR RAIN OR SNOW INSTEAD OF
FREEZING RAIN. THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS EAST OF DIVIDE ALSO
SUPPORT A DELAYS START OF PRECIPITATION. DURING THE AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FOR RAIN, WITH A
WET SNOW POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF HWY 2.
BY THIS EVENING, AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES SOUTH FROM CANADA,
PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW, WITH INCREASED CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE SYSTEM EXITING TO THE EAST WITH SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE BIG SHEEP MOUNTAINS EAST INTO
NORTH DAKOTA. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE COLD (HIGHS BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST LOCATIONS), BUT THE SUN SHOULD PEAK OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE CONTINUE TO BE SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL IN THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATION FROM NBM ARE LIMITED TO INCREASING WINDS FOR MONDAYS
STORM SYSTEM.
CONFIDENCE FOR THE RAIN/SNOW EVENT TODAY INTO TUESDAY IS HIGH.
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINS MODERATE WITH SNOW
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM ZERO TO 5 INCHES.
LATER IN THE WEEK, THE WIDER MODEL SPREAD INCREASES UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING SNOWFALL.
AVIATION
VFR DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH PUNCHES IN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, BRINGING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW DURING THE DAY, TURNING TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING WEST WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE BLOWING SNOW DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
EQUIPMENT: KOLF AND SDY WILL REMAIN AMD NOT SKED UNTIL REPAIRS
CAN BE MADE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-
EASTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-
RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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