341
FXUS65 KGGW 140929
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
229 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND ON TUESDAY, AND PRECIPITATION
AND WIND ON WEDNESDAY.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
ARCTIC AIR AND WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH AROUND NOON BEFORE RISING ABOVE ZERO. AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN ABOVE -20, THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL BE CANCELED BEFORE 6 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING OUTSIDE OF RIVER BASINS AS A CHINOOK
WARMING EVENT REACHES THE AREA, WHICH LEAVES POTENTIAL FOR FOG
TONIGHT IN RIVER VALLEYS. THE WARM UP IN RIVER BASINS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIMITED DUE TO THE HEAVY SNOW COVER IN PLACE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE MILK AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEYS, WHICH WOULD
LIMIT MELTING IN RIVER BASINS. AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVES
IN ON MONDAY EVENING, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND HAZARD IN
THE LITTLE ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING RAPID
SNOWMELT AND LEAVES A POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR FLOODING. THERE IS
ANOTHER IMPULSE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, SO STRONG WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THEN. THERE IS ALSO PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY, MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH OVERALL ACCUMULATION REMAINING
BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILLS REMAINING BELOW ZERO
THROUGH NOON BEFORE RECOVERING ABOVE ZERO. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON
RECENT SNOWCOVER. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE A HIGH WIND PRODUCT WILL BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY NIGHT
FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY. THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
ON A HIGH WIND PRODUCT BEING NEEDED ON WEDNESDAY FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA.
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST WAS LEFT WITH THE BASE NBM FORECAST.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0945Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR, THEN POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION: LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OFF INTO NORTH DAKOTA, AND A
RIDGE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
ABOVE FREEZING IN HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS TODAY, SOME OF THIS
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG TONIGHT. THERE IS CURRENTLY LOW TO
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING.
WINDS: FOR KGGW, SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 18 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 6
TO 11 KNOTS AFTER 21Z. FOR KOLF, EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
WEST AT 6 TO 11 KNOTS AFTER 21Z. FOR KGDV AND KSDY, SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 16 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 17 KNOTS
AFTER 19Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-
NORTHERN VALLEY-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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