822
FXUS65 KGGW 101023
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
323 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER, FOLLOWED
BY SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY THROUGH 8 AM
THURSDAY. LIKELY TO BE EXPANDED.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 850MB FRONTOGENESIS TO DEVELOP IN
EASTERN MONTANA AROUND MID MORNING, BUT DRY NEAR SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE LIMITING SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. LIGHT SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY
EAST ALONG A LINE FROM MALTA TO GLENDIVE. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT, JUST A DUSTING IF YOU'RE LUCKY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING MUCH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, 15 TO 30 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE IN
SOME PLACES. DRY WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK. STRONG WINDS MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LITTLE
ROCKIES WHERE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND LIKE LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A SMALL LIKELIHOOD OF 60 MPH GUSTS JUST IN
NORTHERN PHILLIPS RIGHT NOW, BUT HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN IN
LIKELIHOOD AND AREA WITH FURTHER RUNS. WITH A BIT DEEPER
MIXING AND TEMPS NEAR 60F, GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH WILL CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE. THE ELEVATED FIRE RISK FOR GRASS FIRES IN SOUTHERN
ZONES MAY BE WORTH MESSAGING SINCE IT'S NOT THE SEASON FOR IT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK FOR NIGHTTIME FOG WITH
INVERSIONS AND SNOW MELT ACROSS THE HI-LINE. IT MAY ALSO BE WORTH
MENTIONING THE STRONGER SHORTWAVES MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY TEMPS ARE LOOKING TO DROP
QUICKLY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
RETURN. LITTLE AGREEMENT ON SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME, BUT SUGGEST
TIMING FOR A (BRIEF MAYBE...MAJOR RIDGING REMAINS OFF THE COAST OF
PNW) PATTERN CHANGE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASED DAY POPS USING NAM NEST. FOCUSED ON NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ZONES. BLENDED 50% 01/10 0Z RUN AND 50% 01/01 9Z RUN. NO
ACCUMULATION SEEN ON CAMERAS AS OF 4AM
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE THURSDAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON LOCATIONS
WITH FOG BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BREEZY TO
STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0930Z
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR
DISCUSSION: THERE IS LOW (20-40%) CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS UNTIL 18Z THIS MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 0.3" FOR
LOCATIONS THAT GET SNOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
LLWS: BRIEF PERIODS OF SHEAR OVER KGGW AND KOLF FROM 14Z TO 16Z. WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF SHEAR WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION BEGINNING 23Z OVER KGGW
AND KGDV, 2Z OVER KOLF, AND 4Z OVER KGDV. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LAST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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