777
FXUS65 KGGW 102051
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
151 PM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- WINDY WITH THE CHINOOK MONDAY, A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR PHILLIPS COUNTY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES, 15 TO 30 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOME PLACES.
DRY WEATHER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
STRONGER CHINOOK WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN MONDAY, MOST
READILY FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES BEING NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL WHILE
OTHER AREAS WILL NEED TO SUFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN. WHILE MOST
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND NBM 90TH PERCENTILE MAX WIND GUSTS SHOW
ISOLATED HIGH WIND POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF SW PHILLIPS, THEY ALSO
SHOW A HIGH END SCENARIO OF 70 MPH GUSTS AROUND ZORTMAN. THE WIND
AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GRASS
FIRES IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT IS UNCOMMON FOR THE MIDDLE OF
JANUARY.
THERE IS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK FOR NIGHTTIME FOG WITH
INVERSIONS AND SNOW MELT ACROSS THE HI-LINE. HEADING INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN IS
FAVORED, BUT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS YET EXCEPT FOR SOME DEGREE OF
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
KEPT CLOSE TO THE BASE FORECAST BESIDES LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER
END OF GUIDANCE FOR WINDS ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SW PHILLIPS
COUNTY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE THURSDAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON LOCATIONS
WITH FOG BEGINNING TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BREEZY TO
STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY.
-JEZ
AVIATION
UPDATED: 2100Z
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR
DISCUSSION: SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE, BUT WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 KTS LATE TONIGHT.
LLWS: WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SHEAR WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION
BEGINNING AROUND 00Z AND LASTING THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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