869
FXUS65 KGGW 112047
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
147 PM MST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PHILLIPS COUNTY 5 AM MONDAY THROUGH 8 AM
TUESDAY
- ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER MONDAY IN SNOW-FREE AREAS
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES, 15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DRY WEATHER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
STRONGER CHINOOK WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
MIX DOWN MONDAY IN PHILLIPS COUNTY, MOST READILY FOR THE LITTLE
ROCKIES BEING NEAR THE 850MB LEVEL WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE TO
MIX THROUGH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE WIND AND WARM/DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GRASS FIRE SPREAD IN
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT IS UNCOMMON FOR THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY.
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS ISOLATED RH AS LOW AS THE TEENS IN THE
SOUTHWEST ZONES WILL BE OBSERVED SIMILARLY TO TODAY. MONDAY'S
EXTENT OF WARMTH WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE SURFACE
INVERSION AND LIGHT SNOW PACK LINGERS FOR AREAS SUCH AS GLASGOW,
WHERE THE FORECASTED HIGH IS RIGHT AROUND THE RECORD OF 47
DEGREES.
THERE IS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK FOR NIGHTTIME FOG WITH
INVERSIONS AND SNOW MELT ACROSS THE HI-LINE ONCE WINDS SETTLE DOWN.
HEADING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, A MORE
UNSETTLED PATTERN IS FAVORED, BUT THERE IS NO CONSENSUS YET EXCEPT
FOR SOME DEGREE OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MINOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
BLENDED IN SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE HRRR FOR WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. LOWERED RH ON MONDAY
IN AN EFFORT TO FILTER OUT MODELS OVERESTIMATING SNOWPACK AND
OBSERVED RH MUCH LOWER THAN NBM IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES TODAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE THURSDAY,
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON LOCATIONS WITH NIGHTTIME FOG IMPACTS FROM
LINGERING SNOWPACK MOISTURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BREEZY TO STRONG
WINDS ON MONDAY.
-JEZ
AVIATION
UPDATED: 2100Z
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR
DISCUSSION: SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE AS WESTERLY CHINOOK
WINDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. SUSTAINED 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH WILL BE COMMON AFTER 15Z WHEN A LOW LEVEL INVERSION STARTS TO
BREAK.
LLWS: WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SHEAR WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION PRIOR TO
16Z MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR KGGW AND KOLF.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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