603
FXUS65 KGGW 120918
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
218 AM MST MON JAN 12 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
- HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PHILLIPS COUNTY THROUGH 8 AM TUESDAY.
- ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER TODAY IN SNOW-FREE AREAS
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEK, BRINGING UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES, 15 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. DRY WEATHER
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
STRONGER CHINOOK WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
MIX DOWN TODAY IN PHILLIPS COUNTY, MOST READILY FOR THE LITTLE
ROCKIES BEING NEAR THE 850 MB LEVEL WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL HAVE
TO MIX THROUGH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION. THE WIND AND WARM/DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING AN ELEVATED RISK FOR GRASS FIRE SPREAD IN
THE SOUTHWEST ZONES THAT IS UNCOMMON FOR THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY.
THE PATTERN SUGGESTS AREAS THAT WILL HAVE RH AS LOW AS THE TEENS
TODAY IN PETROLEUM, GARFIELD, AND SOUTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES
TODAY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON SUNDAY. TODAY'S HIGHS WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW WELL THE SURFACE INVERSION HOLDS OVER
THE SNOW COVERED AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US 2. IF THE INVERSION
DOES MIX OUT IN THE NORTH TODAY, HIGHS WILL END UP BEING WARMER
THAN THE 40S THAT ARE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
THERE IS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK FOR NIGHTTIME FOG WITH
INVERSIONS AND SNOW MELT ACROSS THE HI-LINE ONCE WINDS SETTLE DOWN.
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH INVERSIONS LIMITING TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT.
NW FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY WILL BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT AND STRONG NW WINDS.
THERE IS POSSIBILITY THAT WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY COULD REACH 60
MPH IN SOME AREAS.
SOMEWHAT COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THAT
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
BLENDED IN SHORT TERM MODELS LIKE THE HRRR FOR WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT ALONG WITH NBM 90TH PERCENTILE. USED YESTERDAY'S OBSERVED
MIN RH FOR THE MIN RH FORECAST TODAY AS THE MODELS AND NBM HAVE
BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH ON RH LATELY IN AREAS WITH BARE GROUND.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE ON LOCATIONS WITH NIGHTTIME FOG IMPACTS FROM
LINGERING SNOWPACK MOISTURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BREEZY TO STRONG
WINDS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0900Z
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR
DISCUSSION: SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES
TODAY WITH WESTERLY CHINOOK WINDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
BECOME WEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LLWS: WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SHEAR WITH LOW LEVEL INVERSION PRIOR TO
18Z TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR KGGW AND KOLF.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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