955
FXUS65 KGGW 122127
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
227 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM TUESDAY FOR
PHILLIPS COUNTY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE MIDWEEK.
3) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FOR SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER AREAS WITH BARE GROUND
AND NO SNOWPACK. THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 8 AM ON
TUESDAY FOR PHILLIPS COUNTY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS
EXPANDING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS 70 KT WINDS AT
850MB AND GFS SHOWS 50 TO 60 KTS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE SAME
TIME FRAME. THAT SAID, AMPLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE
LIMITING FULL MIXING AND SO MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN AN
INVERSION. A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL SUN AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THESE MORE NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
VALLEYS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
AS A RESULT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW, THOUGH REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS BLENDED WITH NBM 90 FOR WINDS THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON HIGH
WIND REMAINS HIGHEST OVER PHILLIPS COUNTY WHERE A HIGH WIND
WARNING CONTINUES. CLOUDINESS AND AN INVERSION SEEM TO BE
PROVIDING PROTECTIVE ROLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS NE MONTANA FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR MILD AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS FOR
THURSDAY GIVEN GREAT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 2130Z
FLIGHT CONDITION: VFR
DISCUSSION: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA
TERMINALS TODAY, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
WIND: WEST AT 10 TO 20 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
LLWS: SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL
INVERSION.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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