611
FXUS65 KGGW 130452
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
952 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
DISCUSSION
0930PM EVENING UPDATE:
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING WERE FROM AND
INVERSION SETTING IN EARLY AND SHUTTING DOWN THE STRONG WINDS FOR
ALL, BUT THE HIGHEST EXPOSED LOCATIONS. THIS FORCED AN EARLY
CANCELLATION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING. ENDED UP ADAPTING HOURLY
WIND OUT THROUGH 18Z WITH PARTIAL NBM10/NBM BLEND TO BRING SPEEDS
MORE IN ALIGNMENT THROUGH THEN. HOURLY SKY CONDITIONS ALSO NEEDED
TO BE RAISED AS OVERCAST MID TO HIGH CLOUDS ARE ABOVE THE 12KFT
ASOS/AWOS DETECTION RANGE AND THE USUAL SKC FEEDBACK WHEN OVC IS
OBSERVED WHEN GOES SAT SHOWS THE EXACT IS MASSIVELY CHANGING THE
ENSEMBLE SKY FOR THE WORSE. HAD TO FORCE NEAR NBM90 FOR SEVERAL
HOURS OUT AHEAD AND THEN CUT IT BACK INTO REGULAR NBM AROUND MID
TO LATE MORNING. GAH
KEY MESSAGES:
1) A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM TUESDAY FOR
PHILLIPS COUNTY.
2) ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE MIDWEEK.
3) GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN MILD AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FOR SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WEST WINDS OVER AREAS WITH BARE GROUND
AND NO SNOWPACK. THE HIGH WIND WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 8 AM ON
TUESDAY FOR PHILLIPS COUNTY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS
EXPANDING TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS 70 KT WINDS AT
850MB AND GFS SHOWS 50 TO 60 KTS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE SAME
TIME FRAME. THAT SAID, AMPLE HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARE
LIMITING FULL MIXING AND SO MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS IN AN
INVERSION. A FEW HOURS OF PARTIAL SUN AND GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THESE MORE NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
VALLEYS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
DRY SURFACE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY. EXPECT STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
AS A RESULT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW, THOUGH REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
NBM WAS BLENDED WITH NBM 90 FOR WINDS THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON HIGH
WIND REMAINS HIGHEST OVER PHILLIPS COUNTY WHERE A HIGH WIND
WARNING CONTINUES. CLOUDINESS AND AN INVERSION SEEM TO BE
PROVIDING PROTECTIVE ROLES ELSEWHERE ACROSS NE MONTANA FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR MILD AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDWEEK WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS FOR
THURSDAY GIVEN GREAT ENSEMBLE SUPPORT.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATED: 0430Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. SHEAR THREAT SHOULD END AROUND 18Z TUESDAY
FOR ALL TEMRINALS.
DISCUSSION: MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREA AND
TERMINALS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE CYCLE.
WIND: W AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THEN, VEERING NW AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. FINALLY CALMING TO LESS THAN 10 KTS TUERSDAY EVENING.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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