907
FXUS65 KGGW 301004
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
304 AM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A NARROW CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING ALONG A
LINE FROM MALTA TO JORDAN TO MILES CITY. IT SHOULD EXIT BEFORE
NOON. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXISTS FOR PARTS OF PHILLIPS AND
GARFIELD COUNTY.
- A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOCUSED AROUND THE
MT/ND BORDER. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE.
- DAILY HIGHS WILL WARM SATURDAY INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS AND THEN ARE EXPECTED TO STAY WARMER THAN NORMAL
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING: THANKS TO A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT,
ARCTIC OR MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL HANG ON OVER MOST OF OUR ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY ITSELF REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR DENSE
FOG THIS MORNING WITH LOW CLOUDS EAST OF IT. MOST OF THE FOG
SHOULD LIFT BEFORE 11AM.
A SLOWLY FORMING CHINOOK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FIRMING UP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL MONTANA WITH A FOLLOW-ON
SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CWA AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL INTERACT ALLOWING THE SOME OF
THE FOG TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFT DYNAMICS TO BEGIN
ABOVE THE LOWER CLOUDS TONIGHT.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY: A COMPLEX INTERPLAY OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
CHINOOK COULD LEAD TO BOTH GUSTY WINDS IN THE WEST AND FREEZING
RAIN IN THE EAST. DESI HREF ENSEMBLE SOUNDING PLUMES ARE
SHOWCASING DRY BUT VERY WARM AIR PASSING THE FREEZING LINE ALOFT
FROM MALTA ALL THE WAY OVER TO PLENTYWOOD AND SIDNEY. WHILE FULL
SATURATION IS EXPECTED IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE WEST THIS DRY AIR WILL PUT A DAMPENING ON AND DECREASE
CHANCES FOR QPF TO NEAR ZERO. QPF IN THE EAST COULD GET AS HIGH
AS A 0.10" BEFORE CHINOOK FULLY KICKS IN BUT THE INCOMING DRY AIR
SUGGEST THAT THIS NUMBER WILL BE MUCH LOWER LEADING TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE OF QPF/ICE TOTALS OVERALL. ANY RAIN THAT DOES FALL
REGARDLESS OF THE PROFILE WILL BE FALLING ON FROZEN GROUND AND
THEREFORE FORMING ICE. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING
THIS EVENT BUT HAS MUCH LESS OF A CHANCE AND MUCH LOWER OF AN
IMPACT BEING LESS A THAN AN INCH.
ACROSS THE WEST THERE IS A (20-40%) CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO
BREAK 50 KTS / 58 MPH OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES OR SW PHILLIPS
COUNTY. THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE SPC HREF MAX WIND GUSTS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS ALONG WITH NBM GUST PROBABILITIES. HAVE HELD OFF
FROM ISSUING A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NOW WITH HOPES THAT THE NUMBERS
BECOME MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE NEXT FEW RUNS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST LATER ON SATURDAY, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO THE WORK
WEEK AND SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY MELT OFF MUCH OF THE SNOW AND ICE
ON LOCAL STREETS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS FROM NBM INCLUDED WIND GUSTS FROM 12-00Z SATURDAY WITH
A 50/50 BLEND OF NBM/NBM90 USED TO BUMP SPEEDS AND GUSTS DURING
THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN QPF TOTALS FOR THIS SATURDAY EVENT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HIGH WINDS IN SW PHILLIPS COUNTY SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0830Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - AIRPORT SHUTDOWN
DISCUSSION: A SEMI-STATIONARY FRONT RUNNING NW-SE BETWEEN KM75
AND KGGW WILL FOCUS A PERSISTENT NEAR AIRPORT SHUTDOWN FOG ON THE
BOUNDARY AND LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS TO THE EAST OF IT. THIS BOUNDARY
MAY MIGRATE A LITTLE WEST BEFORE CLOUDS EXIT THE GROUND AND FOG
DISSIPATES. TIMING FOR THE DISSIPATION LOOKS TO BE AROUND 17-21Z.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING FREEZING RAIN AND ICE
ACCUMULATION TO THE TAF SITES. A STORM OVERRUNNING THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY COULD BRING FREEZING RAIN TO KGGW
AS EARLY AS 03Z THIS EVENING AND WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT
TO AFFECT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. PRECIP MAY COULD DELAY EXITING
KSDY AS LATE AS ABOUT 18Z SATURDAY. RUNWAYS AND OUTSIDE AIRCRAFT
WILL NEED TO BE CHECKED FOR ICE ON SURFACES.
WIND: ESE AT 10 KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING. INCREASING TO 100 TO 15
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. SLOWLY SHIFTING S AND SW THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THEN VEERING FARTHER W TO NW AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 25
GUST 35 KTS SATURDAY AFTER SUN-UP.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-GARFIELD-NORTHERN PHILLIPS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-WESTERN
ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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