822
FXUS65 KGGW 302039
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
139 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW MORNING MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. UP TO A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOCUSED AROUND THE
MT/ND BORDER. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN TONIGHT.
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. BESIDE
THAT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE FOG HAS LIFTED INTO LOW CLOUDS OR DISSIPATED FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH THIS FOG WILL BECOME A WARM FRONT
TONIGHT, WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN OVERRUNNING OF WARM AIR ABOVE BELOW
FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE. WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES BELOW
FREEZING, ANY RAIN IS MOST LIKELY TO FREEZE ON CONTACT TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO 15 HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AND ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER.
THERE IS A STRONG PUSH OF WIND EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS TO 50
MPH POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
ACROSS THE WEST THERE IS AN 80% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH 58
MPH OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES OR SW PHILLIPS COUNTY. THIS IS
EVIDENT IN THE SPC HREF 90 PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST TOMORROW EVENING, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO THE WORK WEEK.
A BRIEF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE BASE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A WINTRY MIX.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS FROM NBM INCLUDED NBM 90 WIND GUSTS ON DAY 1 INTO DAY 2
FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES. ALSO ADJUSTED LOCAL WINDS FOR GLASGOW AND
FORT PECK TODAY ABOVE NBM 90. USED A 50/50 BLEND OF NBM/NBM90 FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80 PERCENT) IN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA EASTWARD TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
THERE IS HIGH (80 PERCENT) CONFIDENCE OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50
MPH FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES, WITH LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
THIS GUST THRESHOLD BEING REACHED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OCCURRING
STARTING TOMORROW.
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING IN THE
EAST ON MONDAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 2041Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR
DISCUSSION: A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY BECOME A WARM FRONT AND
MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME MVFR CONDITIONS CLOSE
TO KGDV THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WARM
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR FREEZING RAIN TO BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATING BETWEEN
0.01 AND 0.1 INCHES FROM 4Z TO 18Z SATURDAY. BY MID MORNING,
SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER 14Z AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
WIND: FOR KGGW, SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 14Z. FOR KOLF, EAST SOUTHEAST AT 8 TO 13
KNOTS BECOMING WEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS AFTER 15Z. FOR KSDY AND
KGDV, SOUTH AT 10 TO 16 KNOTS BECOMING WEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS
AFTER 15Z.
LLWS: THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR FROM 09Z TO 15Z.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST
SATURDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-WESTERN
ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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