978
FXUS65 KGGW 310830
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
130 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING. UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY FOCUSED AROUND THE MT/ND BORDER. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN PLACE.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES AS A
CHINOOK MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
- ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. BESIDE
THAT, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
WORK WEEK.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
THE PREVIOUS STATIONARY FRONT HAS BECOME A WARM FRONT THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS LEAD TO AN OVERRUNNING OF WARM AIR ABOVE BELOW
FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE EAST. WITH GROUND
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING, ANY RAIN IS LIKELY TO FREEZE ON
CONTACT THIS MORNING. UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. THERE IS A STRONG PUSH OF WIND EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE CHINOOK. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING THE LITTLE ROCKIES.
ACROSS THE WEST THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
TO REACH 58 MPH OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES OR SW PHILLIPS COUNTY.
THE EVIDENCE FOR THIS SITS IN SPC'S HREF "MAX GUSTS" OVER A SMALL
AREA AROUND THE MOUNTAINS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST TOMORROW EVENING, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO THE WORK WEEK.
A BRIEF SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE BASE FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH ON MONDAY TO BRING A MINOR OPPORTUNITY FOR A WINTRY MIX.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS FROM NBM INCLUDED NBM90 WIND GUSTS ON DAY 1 INTO DAY 2
FOR THE LITTLE ROCKIES.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (80-100%) IN FREEZING RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE AREA EASTWARD TO THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER THIS MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH (70-90%) IN WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 MPH FOR
THE LITTLE ROCKIES, BUT LOW TO MODERATE (30-50%) IN IT EXCEEDING
58-60 MPH TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS
STARTING TODAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FREEZING RAIN OCCURRING IN THE EAST ON
MONDAY.
GAH
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0830Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR
DISCUSSION: A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY BECOME A WARM FRONT AND
MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
FREEZING RAIN. THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING
RAIN ACCUMULATING BETWEEN 0.01 AND 0.1 INCHES THROUGH 18Z. AROUND
MID-DAY, SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS MAY BEGIN TO REVERSE DIRECTION
AND SLOWLY SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST OVER KSDY AND KOLF THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WIND: S TO SE AT 10-15 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING. VEERING SW TO W
MID MORNING. VEERING FARTHER TO THE W AND INCREASING TO 15-20
GUST 30 KTS POST SUNUP AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. CALMING TO
10 TO 15 KTS IN THE EVENING.
LLWS: THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF WESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGH ROUGHLY 17Z.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-
DANIELS-DAWSON-EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN
PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-WESTERN
ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR SOUTHWEST
PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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