053
FXUS65 KGGW 050905
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
205 AM MST THU FEB 5 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
- EITHER TODAY OR SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY AND QUITE
WARM FOR FEBRUARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE ARE
SLIGHT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SHARP UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC NW FLATTENS AND SPREADS EAST
LATER THIS WEEK, KEEPING MONTANA MILD AND DRY.
A VERY WARM AIRMASS FOR FEBRUARY WILL BE OVER MONTANA TODAY WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES +10 TO +12C THIS MORNING COOLING SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON. LINGERING SNOW COVER WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT
IN THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, BARE GROUND IN THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. HIGH TODAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH
MIXING OCCURS WHICH IS MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTH WHERE HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS AND NEAR 70 AROUND WINNETT. THIS IS
WHERE WINDS AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY OF LESS THAN 25 PERCENT COULD
BRING A LOCAL CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES, IF THE WARM AIR ALOFT ENDS UP MIXING IN
THE SNOW COVERED AREAS TODAY, HIGHS WILL BE WARMER THAN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND
FLATTENS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. SUNDAY COULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY IN SOME AREAS
ESPECIALLY IF THE SNOW MELTS THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE NORTH.
A PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES IN ON MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID-WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, THE QUESTION OF MIXING ESPECIALLY TODAY
LOWERS THE CONFIDENCE ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE NBM WERE MADE TO MINIMUM HUMIDITY
TODAY, LOWERING IN THE SW ZONES.
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A MIX OF VFR AND
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY IFR FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION: THERE WILL BE VARYING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR LEVEL LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT AND LOWER TO IFR LEVEL AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. AREAS OF FOG MAY
ALSO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE LOW CLOUDS.
LLWS: WILL PREVAIL IN SOME AREAS THIS MORNING.
WINDS: WEST TO NW 8 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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