791
FXUS65 KGGW 070556
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1056 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES.
- GUSTY CHINOOK WINDS REMAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AT 60 MPH OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES
OF SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC SHORE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF CALIFORNIA SETS THE STAGE FOR NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THAT LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
SOUTHWEST SHORE OF CALIFORNIA LEAVING SORT OF A SPLIT FLOW WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND.
NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO EXCEED 50% FOR WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AT
60 MPH OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES, WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, A HIGH WIND WATCH IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY FOR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NE
MONTANA, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SECONDARY CHALLENGE WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EASILY INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WITH THE CHINOOK ARCH WILL LEND SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAISE QUESTIONS
ON PEAK GUSTS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
A CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME LOOK FOR A COATING
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 2 INCH TOTAL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY. INITIAL WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S MAY
LEAD TO SOME ICING CONCERNS AS WELL, LEADING TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING IN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES AT TIMES ALONG WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
A SUBTLE NUDGE OF NBM90 WAS INCLUDED INTO THE WINDS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY GIVEN THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON REACHING NEAR HIGH
WIND CRITERIA OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES. THERE ARE QUESTIONS AROUND
CLOUD COVER, MIXING, AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT
A WINDY PERIOD IS STILL VERY MUCH EXPECTED. THE NBM WAS OTHERWISE
LARGELY MAINTAINED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: SATURDAY MARCH 7 AT 0530Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION:
EXPECT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. WIND SHEAR CONCERNS MAY
SET UP AT TIMES. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A RAMP UP IN GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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