523
FXUS65 KGGW 071332
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
632 AM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH TO
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES.
- GUSTY CHINOOK WINDS REMAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AT 60 MPH OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES
OF SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC SHORE AND DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF CALIFORNIA SETS THE STAGE FOR NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THAT LOW WILL DRIFT OFF THE
SOUTHWEST SHORE OF CALIFORNIA LEAVING SORT OF A SPLIT FLOW WITH
NORTHERN STREAM WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THIS WEEKEND.
NBM PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO EXCEED 50% FOR WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AT
60 MPH OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES, WITH FURTHER SUPPORT FROM HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS. THEREFORE, A HIGH WIND WATCH IS BEING
UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY FOR
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NE
MONTANA, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO 50 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SECONDARY CHALLENGE WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO PUSH EASILY INTO THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 60S BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WITH THE CHINOOK ARCH WILL LEND SOME
UNCERTAINTY TO THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAISE QUESTIONS
ON PEAK GUSTS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
A CHANCE OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME LOOK FOR A COATING
TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 2 INCH TOTAL
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS COUNTY. INITIAL WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S MAY
LEAD TO SOME ICING CONCERNS AS WELL, LEADING TO SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING WORTH MONITORING IN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECT TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES AT TIMES ALONG WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
A SUBTLE NUDGE OF NBM90 WAS INCLUDED INTO THE WINDS FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY GIVEN THE FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH ON REACHING NEAR HIGH
WIND CRITERIA OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES. THERE ARE QUESTIONS AROUND
CLOUD COVER, MIXING, AND WIND GUSTS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT
A WINDY PERIOD IS STILL VERY MUCH EXPECTED. THE NBM WAS OTHERWISE
LARGELY MAINTAINED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0900Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR.
DISCUSSION: EXPECT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS. A CHINOOK WILL
BRING HIGHER THAN AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY.
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KOLF AND KGGW FROM
12-18Z. LLWS COULD RETURN TONIGHT FROM 02-18Z IF AN INVERSION IS
ABLE TO SET UP AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS MODERATE TO LOW.
WIND: W AT 10 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING. INCREASING TO 15 TO
25 GUST 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. REDUCING TO 10 TO 20 GUST 25 KTS
TONIGHT THROIUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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