014
FXUS65 KGGW 071927
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1227 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES.
- GUSTY CHINOOK WINDS REMAIN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A SPLIT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THE WEEKEND WITH WARM CHINOOK
WINDS READILY MIXING DOWN, ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL MONTANA. NBM AND
HREF PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80% FOR WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH
OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES, WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS NE MONTANA, WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH
REMAIN LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SECONDARY
CHALLENGE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASILY INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND EVEN APPROACHING 70 FOR SOME ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GLASGOW'S
RECORD HIGH OF 63 ON SUNDAY WILL BE MATCHED IF THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE VERIFIES. CLOUD COVER WITH THE CHINOOK ARCH LENDS TO
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES AND PEAK WIND GUSTS
WILL REACH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
A CHANCE OF RAIN QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME LOOK FOR
AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL WEST OF A SCOBEY TO JORDAN LINE,
WITH SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE LITTLE ROCKIES. INITIAL WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S WILL
LEND TO CONCERNS OF ICY TRAVEL IMPACTS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECT TO SEE A CONTINUATION OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT TIMES ALONG WITH AN OVERALL DOWNWARD
TREND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WESTERLY JET
STREAK OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGS THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRONG CHINOOK WINDS TO MIX DOWN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
WINDS WERE BLENDED WITH HRRR AND CONSHORT TO ADD DETAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH A SUBTLE NUDGE TOWARD NBM 90TH PERCENTILE GIVEN THE
FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED TO LEAD TO GUSTY CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH FOR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES. CONFIDENCE
IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THE GENERAL PATTERN INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.
-JEZ
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 1830Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION: EXPECT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, MAINLY
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS UNTIL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A CHINOOK WILL BRING HIGHER THAN AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH THE CYCLE.
LLWS: SPEED SHEAR RETURNING TONIGHT FROM 02-16Z IF AN INVERSION
IS ABLE TO SET UP AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS MODERATE, HIGHEST FOR KSDY AND KOLF.
WIND: WEST AT 15-25 GUST 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, REDUCING TO 10-15
GUST 25 KTS TONIGHT. INCREASING TO 20-25 GUST 35 KTS AND TURNING
NORTHWEST SUNDAY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page