381
FXUS65 KGGW 080635
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
1135 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY CHINOOK WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES.
- THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AND RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1-3 INCHES IS IN PLACE OVER THE LITTLE
ROCKIES.
- ANOTHER CHINOOK WITH STRONG WINDS FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
SYNOPTIC SETUP: FORECAST BEGINS WITH A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES EMBEDDED
IN OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW. THE NOSE OF THIS RIDGE HAS DIPPED OFF
THE FRONT RANGE TO GENERATE A CHINOOK DOWN THE PLAINS THROUGH
TODAY WHICH IS BUTTING UP AGAINST A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
TODAY: STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE IN CHARGE FOR TODAY WITH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS COURTESY OF DOWNSLOPING FROM THE CHINOOK. THE
FRONT ITSELF HAS ALREADY MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND IS PROVIDING A LIGHT INVERSION THIS MORNING IN THE FAR
NORTHEAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEFORE SUN-UP
WHEN THE INVERSION WILL BE EATEN AWAY AND WIND SHEAR DISAPPEARS.
TONIGHT: AS THE CHINOOK SHUTS OFF THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SOUTH GENERATING AN AREA OF LIFT JUST NORTH OF IT WHICH WILL BEGIN
WRINGING OUT RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FAR WEST. SNOW TOTALS GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL REACH UPWARD
AND POSSIBLE ABOVE 2 INCHES OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES DUE TO
SOME UPSLOPE. THEREFORE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW WAS
ISSUED.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: COOLER PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL PRESS INTO
THE REGION FOR A COLD START TO MONDAY BUT SHOULD SLOWLY
WARM/MODIFY BY WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY: ANOTHER CHINOOK OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT THAT AFTERNOON IS LOOKING LIKELY AND A QUICK
RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG WINDS ARE
ALREADY BUILDING THEMSELVES INTO THE FORECAST AND A PERSISTENT
MONITORING FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS IS TAKING PLACE OVER THESE TIME
PERIODS.
FRIDAY ONWARD: POST COLD FRONT IT LOOKS LIKE A MORE ARCTIC AIRMASS
MOVES IN RATHER THAN PACIFIC AIRMASS. THIS WILL DROP TEMPS CLOSER
TO NORMAL FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
DEVIATIONS FROM NBM WERE FOCUSED ON THE FIRST 30 HOURS WITH HOURLY
POPS BEING REDONE IN A 33/33/33 BLEND OF NPOP SREF, NPOP CONSSHORT,
NBM PPI01 TO INCREASE HOURLY TOTALS. AT THE SAME TIME, WPC QPF
WAS USED OVER THESE SAME AREAS TO SHOW A MORE SPREAD OUT GRADIENT
AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN HIGH WINDS ACROSS THE LITTLE ROCKIES TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH FOR PLACEMENT AND TOTALS FOR SNOW
TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR ANOTHER RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET TO CAUSE A
CHINOOK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MID TO LATE WORK WEEK. THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING.
GAH
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: 0600Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR
DISCUSSION: A CHINOOK WILL BRING HIGHER THAN AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH THE CYCLE. CLOUD HEIGHTS AND CEILINGS WILL BEGIN DROPPING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AROUND 00-02Z. THIS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY
BRIEFLY BUT CURRENTLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW MVFR. ALL
SNOW SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING IF NOT
EARLIER.
LLWS: LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR RETURNS TONIGHT FROM 02-16Z IF AN
INVERSION IS ABLE TO SET UP AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS MODERATE, HIGHEST FOR KSDY AND KOLF.
WIND: WEST AT 10-15 GUST 25 KTS TONIGHT. SLOWLY VEERING NW AND INCREASING
TO 20-25 GUST 35 KTS AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FURTHER VEERING N AND DECREASING TO 10 KTS OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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