572
FXUS65 KGGW 092025
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
225 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF PERSISTENT ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200.
- THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS, WHICH MAY CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL AS WELL AS
STRESS TO NEWBORN LIVESTOCK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER
ZONES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200. SNOW STRETCHES FROM MOSBY TO JORDAN TO
NW PRAIRIE COUNTY. IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR PETROLEUM,
GARFIELD, AND PRAIRIE COUNTIES. WHILE THE SNOW BAND STRETCHES
NORTHEAST ALONG I-94 THROUGH GLENDIVE, OBSERVATIONS THAT FAR EAST
HAVE SHOWN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SOMEWHAT IMPROVING COMPARED WITH
AREA CAMERAS AND OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME INTO THE MIDWEEK. THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN STREAM
ZONAL FLOW, WHICH WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE OUR WAY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR AN INITIAL COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW
CHANCES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE DAY. A SUBSEQUENT
ROBUST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE
EXTENDING OVER THE STALLED FRONT VIA STABLE UPGLIDE. THIS SETS UP
CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR STEADY SNOW AT TIMES THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, LIKELY WITH A GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
HEAVIER TOTALS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTHEAST.
THE EARLY BIRD LOOK RIGHT NOW SHOWS A FORECAST DISTRIBUTION
RANGING FROM ABOUT 3 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOW FOR THE PLENTYWOOD
AREA, 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM MALTA
TO GLASGOW THROUGH WIBAUX. A CORRIDOR OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE WITH 8 TO 15 INCHES IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES AND POINTS SOUTH INTO PETROLEUM AND
WESTERN GARFIELD COUNTIES. THESE RANGES ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE WHICH IS APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE LATER TIME
SCALES. FOCUSING ON PROBABILITY THRESHOLDS, THERE EXISTS ABOUT A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER A 72 HOUR
PERIOD ENDING SUNDAY EVENING FOR PLENTYWOOD. THIS JUMPS TO 50 TO
60 PERCENT FROM MALTA TO GLASGOW TO SIDNEY AND NEARLY 80 PERCENT
OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LONG DURATION SIGNIFICANT EVENT
WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND MAY CAUSE STRESS ON NEWBORN LIVESTOCK.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS OR INTERESTS IN THE AREA WILL WANT TO
MONITOR FOR FORECAST UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THIS LATE
WINTER SEASON STORM TAKES SHAPE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO COME BETTER INTO
ALIGNMENT WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM EXPECTATIONS
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW ALONG HIGHWAY 200.
NBM90 WAS BLENDED A BIT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN THE
UPCOMING FRONT AND WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THAT SAID,
THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND GREATER AMOUNTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME, ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON THE
EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: MONDAY MARCH 9, 2026 AT 2015Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - MVFR
DISCUSSION:
A CONTINUOUS BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES TO BRING REDUCED CEILINGS AND
MVFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES ACROSS KGDV WITH OTHER AREA TERMINALS AT
VFR. AS SNOW ENDS AFTER 03Z, ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO VFR.
WIND: EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KTS THIS EVENING WILL
BECOME WEST AFTER 06Z AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 15 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY THOUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT CAVEATS.
MILDER TEMPERATURES, AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES, AND GUSTY WEST WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP
ON WEDNESDAY. COOL TEMPERATURES AND RECENT LIGHT SNOWFALL HOWEVER
MAY PRECLUDE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN AREAS WHERE
STRONGER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY OVERLAP.
FOR THURSDAY, WIND GUSTS MAY VERY WELL EXCEED EXPECTED FORECAST
HUMIDITY RANGES. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE
REGION WITH AN APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER STORM.
THIS WILL MEAN A START OF A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ON THURSDAY WHICH
MAY RESULT IN QPF NEAR OR ABOVE 0.10" FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. WHILE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY RESULT IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS DRIER OR FRONT GETS DELAYED, THESE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LEND TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR GARFIELD-
PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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