891
FXUS65 KGGW 100841
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
241 AM MDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG
AND NORTH OF US 2. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST SOUTH OF US 2.
- THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS, WHICH MAY CAUSE DIFFICULT TRAVEL AS WELL AS
STRESS TO NEWBORN LIVESTOCK.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
A WEAK WAVE ON NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING COULD BRING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN STREAM
ZONAL FLOW, WHICH WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE OUR WAY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE MONTANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE BRINGING SNOW THAT WILL MIX WITH RAIN IN SOME
AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ALONG THE
MT/CANADA BORDER THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. THERE
WILL BE HIGH WINDS AND RAIN AND SNOW OCCURRING DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE AREAS SOUTH OF US 2 WILL
LIKELY NEED HIGH WIND HEADLINES WHILE THE NORTH WILL LIKELY NEED A
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINE ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST.
BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE QUASI-
STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FORECAST AREA
THAT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL BRING FREQUENT SNOW WILL
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE EARLY BIRD LOOK RIGHT NOW SHOWS A FORECAST DISTRIBUTION
RANGING FROM 3 TO 4 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL SNOW FOR THE NORTH
DAKOTA BORDER, 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA
FROM MALTA TO GLASGOW THROUGH WIBAUX. A CORRIDOR OF SUBSTANTIAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS POSSIBLE WITH 8 TO 10 INCHES IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST OVER MOST OF PHILLIPS AND PETROLEUM COUNTIES WITH
FORECAST AMOUNTS UP TO 14 INCHES OVER THE LITTLE ROCKIES. THESE
RANGES ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE WHICH IS
APPROPRIATE GIVEN THE LATER TIME SCALES. FOCUSING ON PROBABILITY
THRESHOLDS, THERE EXISTS ABOUT A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER A 72 HOUR PERIOD ENDING SUNDAY EVENING
ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA BORDER. THIS JUMPS TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT
FROM OPHEIM TO GLASGOW TO JORDAN AND OVER 90 PERCENT OVER PHILLIPS
AND NW PETROLEUM COUNTIES.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LONG DURATION SIGNIFICANT EVENT
WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND MAY CAUSE STRESS ON NEWBORN LIVESTOCK.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS OR INTERESTS IN THE AREA WILL WANT TO
MONITOR FOR FORECAST UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THIS LATE
WINTER SEASON STORM TAKES SHAPE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
INCREASED POPS IN THE WEST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
RAISED WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY GIVEN THE UPCOMING FRONT AND
WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT SOME AREAS COULD SEE
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. THAT SAID,
THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A SHARP GRADIENT ON THE OVERALL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST AND GREATER AMOUNTS
TO THE WEST. AT THIS TIME, ONLY MODEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON THE
EXACT SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW.
AVIATION
LAST UPDATE: TUESDAY MARCH 10, 2026 AT 0815Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR
DISCUSSION:
THERE WILL BE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES TODAY WITH CLEAR
SKIES IN BETWEEN. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z WILL
BRING SOME MID LEVEL AND LOW VFR CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
WIND: LOOK WEST TO NW WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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