265
FXUS65 KGGW 110732
AFDGGW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
132 AM MDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTION IS IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE HI-LINE FROM LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
- HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NORTHEAST MONTANA.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PETROLEUM, GARFIELD AND
SOUTHWEST PHILIPS COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO NEWBORN
LIVESTOCK.
- WIND CHILLS COULD POSSIBLY DROP TO NEAR OR BELOW ZERO SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
WITH A LIGHT ROUND OF SNOW EXITNG THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE SNOW
ON TOP OF A SEMI-MOIST ATMOSPHERE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAS BEGUN TO FORM UP FOG. THIS WILL
LIKELY LAST INTO 6 TO 9 AM WHERE IT FORMS AND THEN CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN STREAM
ZONAL FLOW, WHICH WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE OUR WAY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND THE WEEKEND.
A DISTURBANCE IN THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. UP TO 2 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE(20-30%) IN THE FIRST BAND, BUT SIGNIFICANT WINDS RAMPING
UP FROM THE INCOMING CHINOOK WILL TAKE ANY LIGHT SNOW AND REDUCE
VISIBILITY HARSHLY. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE(5-15%) THAT
HIGH WINDS COULD ARRIVE EARLY GENERATING NEAR WHITE OUT CONDITIONS
WITH THIS BANDS PASSAGE MID TO LATE MORNING.
A WARM FRONT/CHINOOK WILL MOVE INTO NE MONTANA LATE THURSDAY
MORNING WITH OVERRUNNING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
RAIN BRIEFLY THROUGH MID-DAY. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRANSITION IN
LOW TO MODERATE AS TEMPERATURES WHILE SNOWING MAY NOT WARM ENOUGH
TO PASS THE FREEZING LINE AND RUN BACK INTO RAIN.
COMPLICATING THIS MID-DAY TRANSITION IS THE HIGH WINDS. HREF
SOUNDINGS ARE ALMOST UNIVERSAL IN THE STRENGTH/INTENSITY OF THE
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS, WHILE THE NBM ENSEMBLES HAS TO BE RAISED
TO IT ABSOLUTE LIMIT (NBM90) JUST TO MIMIC THE CAMS. THEREFORE
NBM WAS THROWN OUT FOR STRAIGHT NBM90 SPEEDS AND GUSTS DURING THIS
TIME. USING KJDN AS A PROXY, THE LOWEST ENSEMBLE SOUNDING MEMBER
FROM THE HREF IS 30 KTS AT THE SURFACE WITH WITH ALL OTHER MEMBERS
SHOWCASING 40 KTS AT THE SURFACE AND 70 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER. THIS WILL FURTHER INTERMIX WITH PRECIP FOR HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION TYPE... AND WHILE RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY SNOW ALONG WITH IT COULD ALSO LEAD TO BLIZZARD LIKE
CONDITIONS POPPING UP UNEXPECTEDLY (5-10% CHANCE). THE HIGH WIND
SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY: AS THE CHINOOK SHUTS OFF A COLD
FRONT WILL DRAG MODIFYING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION. OVERRUNNING
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BRING IN SNOW. BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
THE FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FORECAST AREA THAT OVERRUNNING MOISTURE WILL
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN 3
ZONES OF THE CWA. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO AMOUNTS
UP TO 12 INCHES.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LONG DURATION SIGNIFICANT EVENT
WITH IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND MAY CAUSE STRESS ON NEWBORN LIVESTOCK.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS OR INTERESTS IN THE AREA WILL WANT TO
MONITOR FOR FORECAST UPDATES IN THE COMING DAYS AS THIS LATE
WINTER SEASON STORM TAKES SHAPE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:
BLENDED NBM90 WITH WINDS AND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE
EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS MODERATE AT BEST.
AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE TWEAKED THROUGH THIS
WEEK.
TFJ/GAH
AVIATION
UPDATED: 0715Z
FLIGHT CAT RANGE: VFR - IFR
DISCUSSION: EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KSDY AND KGDV
AND EXIT BY 08Z. THE SNOW ON TOP OF AN ALREADY SEMI-MOIST
ATMOSPHERE EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS HAS BEGUN TO FORM UP FOG. THIS WILL LIKELY LAST INTO 12 TO
15 Z WHERE IT DOES FORM AND THEN CLEAR AT SUN-UP. CONDITIONS COULD
DROP AS LOW AS MVFR OR MAYBE IFR BEFORE EXITING AT SUN-UP AND
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE CYCLE.
SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD POP UP AROUND OR AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THESE WOULD BRING CEILINGS AND MAYBE VISIBILITY DOWN FOR
KGGW RIGHT AT THE END OF THE CYCLE BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING EAST.
WIND: W AND LIGHT THIS MORNING. INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 GUST 25 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN CALMING TO SW AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING
HOURS.
GAH
GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY-DANIELS-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN VALLEY-SHERIDAN-
SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY-DANIELS-DAWSON-
EASTERN ROOSEVELT-GARFIELD-MCCONE-NORTHERN PHILLIPS-NORTHERN
VALLEY-PETROLEUM-PRAIRIE-RICHLAND-SHERIDAN-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS-
WESTERN ROOSEVELT-WIBAUX.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR GARFIELD-PETROLEUM-SOUTHWEST PHILLIPS.
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
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